Riding profile

Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 50.8%
  • Liberal 31.3%
  • Bloc 18.1%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HerePortneuf--Jacques-Cartier 50.8%31.3%18.1%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 24.8% +25.9 45.4% −14.1 27.3% −9.2 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +18.6 48.0% −16.7 5.7% +12.4 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 98% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Joël Godin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
20.3 pts
Turnout
74.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joël Godin Elected Conservative 32,184 49.6 Parliamentarian
Antonin Leroux Liberal 18,865 29.0 Underwriter
Christian Hébert Bloc 11,606 17.9 Farmer
Félix Couture NDP 1,034 1.6 Student
Johann Queffelec Green 728 1.1 Arborist
Simon Frenette PPC 524 0.8 Subway Operator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.0%
  • Anglophone 1.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46