Riding profile

Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Gérard Deltell

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.8%
  • Liberal 30.6%
  • Bloc 19.1%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HereLouis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk 47.8%30.6%19.1%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 26.9% +20.9 40.7% −10.1 27.3% −8.2 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 34.8% +13.0 41.9% −11.3 6.1% +13.0 14.2% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.7 pts
Turnout
72.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gérard Deltell Elected Conservative 29,525 44.9 Parliamentarian
Rhode-Malaure Pierre Liberal 21,693 33.0 Univeristy Student
Martin Trudel Bloc 12,465 18.9 Union Vice President
Colette Ducharme NDP 1,607 2.4 Retired
Anthony Leclerc PPC 527 0.8 Labour Inspector

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 97.0%
  • Anglophone 1.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46