Riding profile

Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Pierre Paul-Hus

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.4%
  • Liberal 32.3%
  • Bloc 19.0%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HereCharlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 45.4%32.3%19.0%5.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 26.9% +18.5 40.7% −8.5 27.3% −8.2 7.0% −1.9
National averageCanada 34.8% +10.6 41.9% −9.6 6.1% +12.9 14.2% −9.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.7 pts
Turnout
73.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pierre Paul-Hus Elected Conservative 27,698 42.4 Parliamentarian
Louis Bellemare Liberal 22,597 34.6 Economist
Bladimir Laborit Infante Bloc 12,346 18.9 Travel Agent
Dominique Harrisson NDP 1,752 2.7 Student
Paul Cyr PPC 516 0.8 Self-Employed Renovation Contractor
Danick Bisson Independent 357 0.5 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 97.2%
  • Anglophone 0.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46