Riding profile
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles
The question
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.9
- P(close race)
- 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCharlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles | 43.6% | 36.7% | 19.0% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8% +18.8 | 45.4% −8.7 | 27.3% −8.3 | 5.1% −1.9 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +11.5 | 48.0% −11.3 | 5.7% +13.3 | 10.6% −7.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.
Sitting member
Pierre Paul-Hus
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Paul-Hus Elected | Conservative | 27,698 | 42.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Louis Bellemare | Liberal | 22,597 | 34.6 | Economist |
| Bladimir Laborit Infante | Bloc | 12,346 | 18.9 | Travel Agent |
| Dominique Harrisson | NDP | 1,752 | 2.7 | Student |
| Paul Cyr | PPC | 516 | 0.8 | Self-Employed Renovation Contractor |
| Danick Bisson | Independent | 357 | 0.5 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 97.2%
- Anglophone 0.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 2.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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