Riding profile

Québec Centre

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Québec Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.6%
  • Bloc 34.8%
  • PPC 5.1%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • Conservative 2.5%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc PPC NDP
HereQuébec Centre 50.6%34.8%5.1%4.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +5.2 27.3% +7.5 1.0% +4.1 5.1% −0.7
National averageCanada 48.0% +2.6 5.7% +29.1 1.0% +4.1 10.6% −6.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Québec Centre, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 35% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 94% francophone, 2% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jean-Yves Duclos

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
70.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Yves Duclos Elected Liberal 27,880 49.5 Parliamentarian
Simon Bérubé Bloc 20,203 35.9 International Relations Specialist
Tommy Bureau NDP 4,400 7.8 Councillor
Daniel Brisson PPC 2,818 5.0 Business Consultant
Patrick Kerr Independent 1,018 1.8 Entrepreneur

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 94.1%
  • Anglophone 1.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46