Riding profile

Compton--Stanstead

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Compton--Stanstead: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.6%
  • Bloc 26.0%
  • Conservative 24.3%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 2.5%
  • PPC 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereCompton--Stanstead 47.6%26.0%24.3%3.3%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +2.3 27.3% −1.3 24.8% −0.5 5.1% −1.8
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.4 5.7% +20.3 32.1% −7.8 10.6% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Compton--Stanstead, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 26% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 88% francophone, 11% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marianne Dandurand

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.0 pts
Turnout
71.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marianne Dandurand Elected Liberal 29,951 45.6 Chief of Staff
Nathalie Bresse Bloc 17,305 26.4 Mayor
Jacques Painchaud Conservative 14,292 21.8 Retired Sureté du Québec Police Officer
Valérie Laliberté NDP 2,124 3.2 Public Servant
Sébastien Tremblay Green 1,161 1.8 Teacher
Paul Lehmann PPC 787 1.2 Entrepreneur

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 88.0%
  • Anglophone 10.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46