Riding profile

Brome--Missisquoi

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Brome--Missisquoi: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.3%
  • Bloc 27.7%
  • Conservative 21.8%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereBrome--Missisquoi 50.3%27.7%21.8%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +4.9 27.3% +0.4 24.8% −3.0 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +2.3 5.7% +22.0 32.1% −10.3 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brome--Missisquoi, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 28% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 86% francophone, 13% anglophone.

Sitting member

Louis Villeneuve

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
20.0 pts
Turnout
72.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Louis Villeneuve Elected Liberal 34,727 48.3 MAyor
Jeff Boudreault Bloc 20,182 28.0 Comedian
Steve Charbonneau Conservative 13,743 19.1 Administrator
Zoé Larose NDP 1,600 2.2 Store Manager
Michelle Corcos Green 1,139 1.6 Acupuncturist
Jack McLeod PPC 561 0.8 Programmer Analyst

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 85.8%
  • Anglophone 13.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46