Riding profile

Saint-Jean

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Saint-Jean: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.7
P(close race)
17%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 43.9%
  • Liberal 36.3%
  • Conservative 17.8%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereSaint-Jean 43.9%36.3%17.8%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +16.6 45.4% −9.1 24.8% −7.0 5.1% −0.1
National averageCanada 5.7% +38.2 48.0% −11.8 32.1% −14.3 10.6% −5.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Jean, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 44% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 96% francophone, 3% anglophone.

Sitting member

Christine Normandin

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
9.9 pts
Turnout
69.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christine Normandin Elected Bloc 28,474 44.3 Parliamentarian
Patrick Agbokou Liberal 21,999 34.3 Administrator
Marie Louis-Seize Conservative 10,480 16.3 Retired
Danielle Dubuc NDP 1,650 2.6 Retired
Vincent Piette Green 988 1.5 Flight Service Director (Flight Attendant)
Tchad Deschenes PPC 624 1.0 Representative

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.1%
  • Anglophone 2.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46