Riding profile

La Prairie--Atateken

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

La Prairie--Atateken: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.7
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.1%
  • Bloc 34.4%
  • Conservative 20.3%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereLa Prairie--Atateken 46.1%34.4%20.3%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +0.8 27.3% +7.1 24.8% −4.5 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% −1.9 5.7% +28.7 32.1% −11.8 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

La Prairie--Atateken, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 34% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 83% francophone, 8% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jacques Ramsay

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
9.2 pts
Turnout
72.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jacques Ramsay Elected Liberal 29,418 44.1 Family Physician
Alain Therrien Bloc 23,232 34.8 Teacher
Dave Pouliot Conservative 11,505 17.2 Lawyer
Mathieu Boisvert NDP 1,588 2.4 Political Assistant
Barbara Joannette Green 657 1.0 Municipal Employee
Ruth Fontaine PPC 361 0.5 Representative

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 83.4%
  • Anglophone 7.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 8.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46