Riding profile

Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 76% francophone, 18% anglophone.

Sitting member

Nathalie Provost

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 43.3%
  • Bloc 29.1%
  • Conservative 26.8%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereChâteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville 43.3%29.1%26.8%5.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +2.6 27.3% +1.8 26.9% −0.1 7.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 41.9% +1.4 6.1% +23.0 34.8% −8.0 14.2% −9.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
15.8 pts
Turnout
69.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nathalie Provost Elected Liberal 28,224 45.2 Public Servant
Patrick O'Hara Bloc 18,160 29.1 Manager
David De Repentigny Conservative 13,538 21.7 Border Services Officer
Hannah Wolker NDP 1,377 2.2 Home Care Worker
Martine Desrochers Green 773 1.2 Executive Assistant
Nicolas Guérin PPC 429 0.7 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 76.3%
  • Anglophone 18.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46