Riding profile
Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville
The question
Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChâteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville | 47.8% | 29.1% | 24.9% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% +2.4 | 27.3% +1.8 | 24.8% +0.1 | 5.1% −2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −0.3 | 5.7% +23.4 | 32.1% −7.2 | 10.6% −7.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Châteauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 29% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 76% francophone, 18% anglophone.
Sitting member
Nathalie Provost
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie Provost Elected | Liberal | 28,224 | 45.2 | Public Servant |
| Patrick O'Hara | Bloc | 18,160 | 29.1 | Manager |
| David De Repentigny | Conservative | 13,538 | 21.7 | Border Services Officer |
| Hannah Wolker | NDP | 1,377 | 2.2 | Home Care Worker |
| Martine Desrochers | Green | 773 | 1.2 | Executive Assistant |
| Nicolas Guérin | PPC | 429 | 0.7 | Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 76.3%
- Anglophone 18.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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