Byelection

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton: will Independent lose this seat to Bloc?

By-election — the next vote in this seat

By-election favourite

Bloc

60% · Probability

  • Seat vacant — writ pending
  • Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay is leaving
  • Mean margin (pts) : 5.2

Projected shares

Bloc 37.7%
Liberal 36.1%
Conservative 18.3%
NDP 4.8%
Green 2.1%

Why this differs from the map above

Both readings favour Bloc.

The projection below answers a general election: every seat voting at once. This one answers the by-election actually coming. By-election turnout is differential — it costs whichever side is demobilised, which is why the two can name different winners.

Full by-election desk →

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 43.5%
  • Liberal 35.6%
  • Conservative 19.4%
  • NDP 4.8%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereSaint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton 43.5%35.6%19.4%4.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +16.2 45.4% −9.8 24.8% −5.4 5.1% −0.3
National averageCanada 5.7% +37.8 48.0% −12.4 32.1% −12.7 10.6% −5.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 43% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay

Sits with Independent

Elected as Bloc · party_changeon2026-05-28

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
10.1 pts
Turnout
69.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay Elected Bloc 25,447 43.9 Parliamentarian
Mélanie Bédard Liberal 19,504 33.6 Major Accounts Manager
Gaëtan Deschênes Conservative 10,431 18.0 Businessman
Raymonde Plamondon NDP 1,373 2.4 Retired
Martin Grenier Green 800 1.4 Talent Acquisition Consultant
Sylvain Pariseau PPC 431 0.7 Aerospace Structure Assembler

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.8%
  • Anglophone 0.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46