Riding profile

Sherbrooke

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Sherbrooke: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.2%
  • Bloc 26.3%
  • Conservative 15.6%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • Green 3.0%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereSherbrooke 53.2%26.3%15.6%3.9%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +7.8 27.3% −1.0 24.8% −9.2 5.1% −1.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.2 5.7% +20.6 32.1% −16.5 10.6% −6.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sherbrooke, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 26% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 91% francophone, 3% anglophone.

Sitting member

Élisabeth Brière

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.3 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Élisabeth Brière Elected Liberal 31,249 51.3 Parliamentarian
Pierre-Étienne Rouillard Bloc 16,224 26.6 Comedian
Esteban Méndez-Hord Conservative 7,983 13.1 Customer Service Advisor
Jean-Pierre Fortier NDP 3,516 5.8 Engineer
Kevin McKenna Green 1,383 2.3 Retired
Alexandre Lépine PPC 576 0.9 Plant Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 91.3%
  • Anglophone 3.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46