Riding profile

Trois-Rivières

Federal riding — QC · Rural · fed qc

The question

Trois-Rivières: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.9%
  • Conservative 28.5%
  • Bloc 27.6%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereTrois-Rivières 42.9%28.5%27.6%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% −2.5 24.8% +3.7 27.3% +0.3 5.1% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% −5.1 32.1% −3.6 5.7% +21.9 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Trois-Rivières, a rural riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 97% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Caroline Desrochers

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
68.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Caroline Desrochers Elected Liberal 25,147 41.0 Public Servant
René Villemure Bloc 16,921 27.6 Parliamentarian
Yves Levesque Conservative 16,708 27.2 Merchant Navy Captain
Matthew Sévigny NDP 1,437 2.3 Student
David Turcotte Green 569 0.9 Compensation Officer
Yan Patry PPC 320 0.5 Manager
Mathieu Doyon Other 215 0.4 Peace Officer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 96.8%
  • Anglophone 0.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46