Riding profile

Berthier--Maskinongé

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Berthier--Maskinongé: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Bloc

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
48%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 34.8%
  • Liberal 29.7%
  • NDP 23.8%
  • Conservative 18.7%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal NDP Conservative
HereBerthier--Maskinongé 34.8%29.7%23.8%18.7%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +7.5 45.4% −15.7 5.1% +18.8 24.8% −6.1
National averageCanada 5.7% +29.1 48.0% −18.3 10.6% +13.2 32.1% −13.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Berthier--Maskinongé, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 35% vote share, against 30% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Yves Perron

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
10.5 pts
Turnout
68.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yves Perron Elected Bloc 21,676 35.0 Teacher
Stéphane Bilodeau Liberal 15,056 24.3 Residential Real Estate Broker
Ruth Ellen Brosseau NDP 13,457 21.7 Farmer
Peter Saliba Conservative 10,641 17.2 Video Producer
Elia Gomez-Gnali PPC 575 0.9 Property and Casualty Insurance Broker
Daniel Simon Green 551 0.9 Chief Executive Officer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.7%
  • Anglophone 0.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46