Riding profile

Skeena--Bulkley Valley

Federal riding — BC · Rural · bc north

The question

Skeena--Bulkley Valley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
67%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 39.1%
  • NDP 38.1%
  • Liberal 13.4%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative NDP Liberal Green
HereSkeena--Bulkley Valley 39.1%38.1%13.4%1.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 33.6% +5.4 8.4% +29.8 47.6% −34.2 3.0% −1.6
National averageCanada 32.1% +7.0 10.6% +27.5 48.0% −34.6 2.7% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Skeena--Bulkley Valley, a rural riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 38% for the NDP, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ellis Ross

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.8 pts
Turnout
64.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ellis Ross Elected Conservative 21,202 47.2 Former Legislator
Taylor Bachrach NDP 17,677 39.3 Parliamentarian
Inderpal Dhillon Liberal 4,923 11.0 Self-Employed
Rod Taylor Other 602 1.3 Author
Adeana Young Green 528 1.2 First Nations Language Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 96.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46