Riding profile
Grande Prairie
The question
Grande Prairie: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Grande Prairie, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 69-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 16% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 94% anglophone.
Sitting member
Chris Warkentin
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 44.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGrande Prairie | 60.3% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 44.0% +16.2 | 35.7% −19.9 | 7.2% −3.3 | 1.3% +0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +25.5 | 41.9% −26.0 | 14.2% −10.3 | 1.0% +0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warkentin Elected | Conservative | 47,904 | 81.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Maureen Mcleod | Liberal | 6,946 | 11.8 | Retired |
| Jennifer Villebrun | NDP | 2,460 | 4.2 | Teacher |
| Shawn McLean | PPC | 828 | 1.4 | Instrumentation Technician |
| Donovan Eckstrom | Other | 291 | 0.5 | Teacher |
| Elliot McDavid | Independent | 223 | 0.4 | Self-Employed |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.5%
- Anglophone 93.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46