Riding profile

Grande Prairie

Federal riding — AB · Mixed · ab rural

The question

Grande Prairie: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 60.0%
  • Liberal 18.6%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • PPC 1.8%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereGrande Prairie 60.0%18.6%2.4%1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 43.8% +16.2 40.8% −22.3 5.2% −2.8 1.3% +0.5
National averageCanada 32.1% +27.9 48.0% −29.4 10.6% −8.2 1.0% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Grande Prairie, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 69-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 19% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Chris Warkentin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
69.4 pts
Turnout
69.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Warkentin Elected Conservative 47,904 81.7 Parliamentarian
Maureen Mcleod Liberal 6,946 11.8 Retired
Jennifer Villebrun NDP 2,460 4.2 Teacher
Shawn McLean PPC 828 1.4 Instrumentation Technician
Donovan Eckstrom Other 291 0.5 Teacher
Elliot McDavid Independent 223 0.4 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 93.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46