Riding profile

St. Albert--Sturgeon River

Federal riding — AB · Suburban · edmonton

The question

St. Albert--Sturgeon River: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
64%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.9%
  • Conservative 42.0%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • PPC 1.6%
  • Green 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereSt. Albert--Sturgeon River 45.9%42.0%3.3%1.6%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +5.1 43.8% −1.8 5.2% −1.9 1.3% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% −2.1 32.1% +9.9 10.6% −7.3 1.0% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

St. Albert--Sturgeon River, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Michael Cooper

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
33.9 pts
Turnout
76.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Cooper Elected Conservative 49,216 63.9 Parliamentarian
Lucia Stachurski Liberal 22,977 29.9 Retired Accountant
Dorothy Anderson NDP 3,684 4.8 Senior Advisor
Brigitte Cecelia PPC 820 1.1 Retail Manager
Jeff Willerton Other 264 0.3 Salesperson

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.9%
  • Anglophone 96.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46