Riding profile
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake
The question
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 65-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 19% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 90% anglophone.
Sitting member
Laila Goodridge
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 40.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFort McMurray--Cold Lake | 58.7% | 18.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 44.0% +14.7 | 35.7% −17.2 | 7.2% −3.6 | 1.3% +0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +23.9 | 41.9% −23.3 | 14.2% −10.6 | 1.0% +1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laila Goodridge Elected | Conservative | 39,649 | 80.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Kaitlyn Staines | Liberal | 7,193 | 14.5 | Political Staffer |
| You-Ju Choi | NDP | 1,337 | 2.7 | Train Conductor |
| Alan Clarke | PPC | 896 | 1.8 | Heavy Duty Mechanic |
| Brian Deheer | Green | 290 | 0.6 | Musician |
| Kulbir Chawla | Independent | 101 | 0.2 | Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.1%
- Anglophone 90.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 8.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46