Riding profile
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake
The question
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFort McMurray--Cold Lake | 58.4% | 21.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% +14.6 | 40.8% −19.6 | 1.3% +0.9 | 5.2% −3.2 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +26.3 | 48.0% −26.8 | 1.0% +1.2 | 10.6% −8.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 65-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 21% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 90% anglophone.
Sitting member
Laila Goodridge
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laila Goodridge Elected | Conservative | 39,649 | 80.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Kaitlyn Staines | Liberal | 7,193 | 14.5 | Political Staffer |
| You-Ju Choi | NDP | 1,337 | 2.7 | Train Conductor |
| Alan Clarke | PPC | 896 | 1.8 | Heavy Duty Mechanic |
| Brian Deheer | Green | 290 | 0.6 | Musician |
| Kulbir Chawla | Independent | 101 | 0.2 | Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.1%
- Anglophone 90.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 8.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46