Riding profile

Fort McMurray--Cold Lake

Federal riding — AB · Mixed · ab rural

The question

Fort McMurray--Cold Lake: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Fort McMurray--Cold Lake, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 65-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 19% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 90% anglophone.

Sitting member

Laila Goodridge

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 58.7%
  • Liberal 18.6%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • PPC 2.2%
  • Green 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereFort McMurray--Cold Lake 58.7%18.6%3.5%2.2%
Provincial averageAlberta 44.0% +14.7 35.7% −17.2 7.2% −3.6 1.3% +0.9
National averageCanada 34.8% +23.9 41.9% −23.3 14.2% −10.6 1.0% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
65.2 pts
Turnout
62.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laila Goodridge Elected Conservative 39,649 80.2 Parliamentarian
Kaitlyn Staines Liberal 7,193 14.5 Political Staffer
You-Ju Choi NDP 1,337 2.7 Train Conductor
Alan Clarke PPC 896 1.8 Heavy Duty Mechanic
Brian Deheer Green 290 0.6 Musician
Kulbir Chawla Independent 101 0.2 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.1%
  • Anglophone 90.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 8.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46