Riding profile

Fundy Royal

Federal riding — NB · Rural · atlantic

The question

Fundy Royal: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
86%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.0%
  • Liberal 41.9%
  • Green 2.8%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green NDP
HereFundy Royal 45.0%41.9%2.8%2.4%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 33.0% +12.0 55.9% −14.0 2.4% +0.3 2.8% −0.5
National averageCanada 32.1% +12.9 48.0% −6.1 2.7% +0.1 10.6% −8.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Fundy Royal, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 2% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rob Moore

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
75.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rob Moore Elected Conservative 25,411 53.4 Parliamentarian
Bill Kudla Liberal 19,103 40.1 Retired
Cindy Andrie NDP 1,507 3.2 Account Manager
Hans Johnsen Green 961 2.0 Manager
Alastair MacFarlane PPC 629 1.3 Machinist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.8%
  • Anglophone 97.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46