Riding profile
Saint John--Kennebecasis
The question
Saint John--Kennebecasis: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Saint John--Kennebecasis, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 94% anglophone.
Sitting member
Wayne Long
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint John--Kennebecasis | 56.8% | 31.1% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 51.3% +5.5 | 35.2% −4.1 | 4.8% +1.2 | 2.1% |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +14.9 | 34.8% −3.7 | 14.2% −8.2 | 2.1% −0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Long Elected | Liberal | 26,129 | 58.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Melissa Young | Conservative | 16,787 | 37.3 | Executive Officer |
| Armand Cormier | NDP | 1,206 | 2.7 | Software Developer |
| David MacFarquhar | Green | 737 | 1.6 | Data Scientist |
| Austin Venedam | Other | 108 | 0.2 | Labourer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.4%
- Anglophone 94.0%
- Non-francophone (other) 4.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46