Riding profile
Saint John--Kennebecasis
The question
Saint John--Kennebecasis: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint John--Kennebecasis | 63.0% | 29.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.9% +7.1 | 33.0% −3.8 | 2.8% +0.7 | 2.4% |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +15.0 | 32.1% −2.9 | 10.6% −7.1 | 2.7% −0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint John--Kennebecasis, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 94% anglophone.
Sitting member
Wayne Long
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Long Elected | Liberal | 26,129 | 58.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Melissa Young | Conservative | 16,787 | 37.3 | Executive Officer |
| Armand Cormier | NDP | 1,206 | 2.7 | Software Developer |
| David MacFarquhar | Green | 737 | 1.6 | Data Scientist |
| Austin Venedam | Other | 108 | 0.2 | Labourer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.4%
- Anglophone 94.0%
- Non-francophone (other) 4.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46