Riding profile
Saint John--St. Croix
The question
Saint John--St. Croix: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Saint John--St. Croix, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
John Williamson
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 24%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint John--St. Croix | 46.7% | 40.3% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 35.2% +11.5 | 51.3% −11.1 | 4.8% +1.4 | 2.1% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +11.9 | 41.9% −1.6 | 14.2% −8.0 | 2.1% −0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Williamson Elected | Conservative | 26,591 | 53.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Karen Ludwig | Liberal | 20,784 | 41.5 | Consultant |
| Andrew Hill | NDP | 1,643 | 3.3 | Retired Veteran |
| Gerald Irish | Green | 794 | 1.6 | Production Sales Manager |
| Keith Tays | Other | 280 | 0.6 | Construction Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.4%
- Anglophone 97.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46