Riding profile
Saint John--St. Croix
The question
Saint John--St. Croix: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 76%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 94%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaint John--St. Croix | 46.4% | 44.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.9% −9.5 | 33.0% +11.8 | 2.8% +0.9 | 2.4% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −1.6 | 32.1% +12.7 | 10.6% −6.9 | 2.7% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saint John--St. Croix, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 45% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
John Williamson
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Williamson Elected | Conservative | 26,591 | 53.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Karen Ludwig | Liberal | 20,784 | 41.5 | Consultant |
| Andrew Hill | NDP | 1,643 | 3.3 | Retired Veteran |
| Gerald Irish | Green | 794 | 1.6 | Production Sales Manager |
| Keith Tays | Other | 280 | 0.6 | Construction Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.4%
- Anglophone 97.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46