Riding profile

Tobique--Mactaquac

Federal riding — NB · Rural · atlantic

The question

Tobique--Mactaquac: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 50.4%
  • Liberal 37.6%
  • Green 2.8%
  • NDP 2.1%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green NDP
HereTobique--Mactaquac 50.4%37.6%2.8%2.1%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 33.0% +17.4 55.9% −18.3 2.4% +0.4 2.8% −0.7
National averageCanada 32.1% +18.3 48.0% −10.4 2.7% +0.1 10.6% −8.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Tobique--Mactaquac, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 2% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Richard Bragdon

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
22.8 pts
Turnout
73.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Bragdon Elected Conservative 23,322 58.8 Parliamentarian
Julian Moulton Liberal 14,226 35.9 Band Councillor
Michael John Winter NDP 812 2.0 Student
Liam MacDougall Green 806 2.0 Student
Vern Brundle PPC 501 1.3 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.9%
  • Anglophone 96.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46