Riding profile

Madawaska--Restigouche

Federal riding — NB · Rural · atlantic

The question

Madawaska--Restigouche: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Madawaska--Restigouche, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 34% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 79% francophone, 21% anglophone.

Sitting member

Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.1%
  • Conservative 33.6%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • PPC 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereMadawaska--Restigouche 53.1%33.6%4.0%2.1%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 51.3% +1.7 35.2% −1.7 4.8% −0.8 0.9% +1.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +11.2 34.8% −1.2 14.2% −10.2 1.0% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
15.4 pts
Turnout
70.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault Elected Liberal 22,720 55.2 Research Consultant
Michel Morin Conservative 16,320 39.6 Retired
Daisy Petersen NDP 1,251 3.0 Licensed Practical Nurse
Nancy Mercier PPC 887 2.2 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 78.6%
  • Anglophone 20.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46