Riding profile
Madawaska--Restigouche
The question
Madawaska--Restigouche: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMadawaska--Restigouche | 56.6% | 31.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.9% +0.7 | 33.0% −1.9 | 2.8% −0.5 | 0.9% +1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +8.6 | 32.1% −0.9 | 10.6% −8.3 | 1.0% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Madawaska--Restigouche, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 79% francophone, 21% anglophone.
Sitting member
Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume Deschênes-Thériault Elected | Liberal | 22,720 | 55.2 | Research Consultant |
| Michel Morin | Conservative | 16,320 | 39.6 | Retired |
| Daisy Petersen | NDP | 1,251 | 3.0 | Licensed Practical Nurse |
| Nancy Mercier | PPC | 887 | 2.2 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 78.6%
- Anglophone 20.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.7%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46