Riding profile

Rimouski--La Matapédia

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Rimouski--La Matapédia: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.3
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 46.0%
  • Liberal 37.6%
  • Conservative 15.1%
  • NDP 4.2%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereRimouski--La Matapédia 46.0%37.6%15.1%4.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.7 45.4% −7.7 24.8% −9.7 5.1% −0.8
National averageCanada 5.7% +40.3 48.0% −10.4 32.1% −17.0 10.6% −6.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Rimouski--La Matapédia, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Maxime Blanchette-Joncas

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
10.5 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Elected Bloc 24,947 46.2 Parliamentarian
Alexander Reford Liberal 19,201 35.5 Director
Nancy Joannette Conservative 7,324 13.6 Entrepreneur
Salomé Salvain NDP 974 1.8 Speech Therapist
Noémi Bureau-Civil Independent 620 1.1 Coordinator
Taraneh Javanbakht PPC 338 0.6 Researcher
Lysane Picker-Paquin Other 295 0.5 Artist
Raphaël Arsenault Independent 242 0.4 Library Clerk
Tommy Lefebvre Independent 99 0.2 Built Heritage Advisor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 99.2%
  • Anglophone 0.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46