Riding profile

Rimouski--La Matapédia

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Rimouski--La Matapédia: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Rimouski--La Matapédia, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 46% vote share, against 33% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Maxime Blanchette-Joncas

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 46.0%
  • Liberal 33.2%
  • Conservative 17.0%
  • NDP 6.2%
  • PPC 0.8%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereRimouski--La Matapédia 46.0%33.2%17.0%6.2%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +18.7 40.7% −7.5 26.9% −9.9 7.0% −0.8
National averageCanada 6.1% +39.9 41.9% −8.7 34.8% −17.8 14.2% −8.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
10.5 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas Elected Bloc 24,947 46.2 Parliamentarian
Alexander Reford Liberal 19,201 35.5 Director
Nancy Joannette Conservative 7,324 13.6 Entrepreneur
Salomé Salvain NDP 974 1.8 Speech Therapist
Noémi Bureau-Civil Independent 620 1.1 Coordinator
Taraneh Javanbakht PPC 338 0.6 Researcher
Lysane Picker-Paquin Other 295 0.5 Artist
Raphaël Arsenault Independent 242 0.4 Library Clerk
Tommy Lefebvre Independent 99 0.2 Built Heritage Advisor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 99.2%
  • Anglophone 0.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46