Riding profile

Chicoutimi--Le Fjord

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Chicoutimi--Le Fjord: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.4%
  • Bloc 33.7%
  • Conservative 15.4%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Bloc Conservative NDP
HereChicoutimi--Le Fjord 50.4%33.7%15.4%3.4%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +5.0 27.3% +6.4 24.8% −9.4 5.1% −1.7
National averageCanada 48.0% +2.4 5.7% +28.0 32.1% −16.7 10.6% −7.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chicoutimi--Le Fjord, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 34% for the Bloc Québécois, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Richard Martel

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.9 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Martel Elected Conservative 17,356 34.1 Parliamentarian
Marc St-Hilaire Bloc 15,857 31.2 General Manager
Stéphane Proulx Liberal 15,820 31.1 Manager
Raphaël Émond NDP 991 1.9 Student
Yves Laporte Green 476 0.9 Musician
François Sabourin PPC 339 0.7 Maintenance Man

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.7%
  • Anglophone 0.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46