Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Bloc	Conservative	NDP
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	49.3%	33.3%	15.5%	3.5%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.3%+6.0	27.3%+6.0	24.1%−8.6	5.4%−2.0
National averageCanada	46.8%+2.5	6.1%+27.2	30.4%−14.9	11.2%−7.7

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 98.7% English 0.7% Other languages 0.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Richard Martel · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 2.9 points, with 68.5% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.0 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Richard Martel Elected	Conservative	17,356	33.7	Parliamentarian
Marc St-Hilaire	Bloc	15,857	30.8	General Manager
Stéphane Proulx	Liberal	15,820	30.7	Manager
Raphaël Émond	NDP	991	1.9	Student
Yves Laporte	Green	476	0.9	Musician
François Sabourin	PPC	339	0.7	Maintenance Man
Other candidates		724	1.4

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.