Riding profile

Montmorency--Charlevoix

Federal riding — QC · Suburban · fed qc

The question

Montmorency--Charlevoix: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
2.6
P(close race)
90%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 35.8%
  • Bloc 33.6%
  • Liberal 31.0%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • PPC 0.8%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Bloc Liberal NDP
HereMontmorency--Charlevoix 35.8%33.6%31.0%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 24.8% +11.0 27.3% +6.3 45.4% −14.4 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +3.7 5.7% +27.9 48.0% −17.0 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Montmorency--Charlevoix, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 36% vote share, against 34% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.

Sitting member

Gabriel Hardy

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.9 pts
Turnout
72.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gabriel Hardy Elected Conservative 20,494 34.5 Kinesiologist
Caroline Desbiens Bloc 19,970 33.6 Parliamentarian
Alex Ouellet-Bélanger Liberal 17,101 28.8 Engineer
Gérard Briand NDP 905 1.5 Philanthropy and Fundraising Advisor
Élie Prud'Homme-Tessier Green 580 1.0 Natural Resources Centre Management
Bart Cortenbach PPC 357 0.6 Computer Scientist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 98.8%
  • Anglophone 0.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46