Riding profile
Montmorency--Charlevoix
The question
Montmorency--Charlevoix: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Montmorency--Charlevoix, a suburban riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 38% vote share, against 34% for the Bloc Québécois, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 1% anglophone.
Sitting member
Gabriel Hardy
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 94%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 64%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Bloc | Liberal | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMontmorency--Charlevoix | 37.7% | 33.6% | 26.6% | 4.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 26.9% +10.8 | 27.3% +6.3 | 40.7% −14.2 | 7.0% −2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +2.9 | 6.1% +27.5 | 41.9% −15.3 | 14.2% −9.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Hardy Elected | Conservative | 20,494 | 34.5 | Kinesiologist |
| Caroline Desbiens | Bloc | 19,970 | 33.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Alex Ouellet-Bélanger | Liberal | 17,101 | 28.8 | Engineer |
| Gérard Briand | NDP | 905 | 1.5 | Philanthropy and Fundraising Advisor |
| Élie Prud'Homme-Tessier | Green | 580 | 1.0 | Natural Resources Centre Management |
| Bart Cortenbach | PPC | 357 | 0.6 | Computer Scientist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 98.8%
- Anglophone 0.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46