Riding profile

Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.6%
  • Liberal 32.9%
  • Bloc 20.4%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Bloc NDP
HereCôte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata 47.6%32.9%20.4%3.0%
Provincial averageQuebec 24.8% +22.8 45.4% −12.5 27.3% −6.9 5.1% −2.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +15.5 48.0% −15.1 5.7% +14.7 10.6% −7.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Côte-du-Sud-Rivière-du-Loup-Kataskomiq-Témiscouata, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 33% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 99% francophone, 0% anglophone.

Sitting member

Bernard Généreux

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.3 pts
Turnout
66.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bernard Généreux Elected Conservative 28,873 45.8 Parliamentarian
Rémi Massé Liberal 19,097 30.3 Executive Director
Diane Sénécal Bloc 12,598 20.0 Director
Iseult L'Heureux Hubert NDP 1,072 1.7 Public Servant
Alexie Plourde Green 682 1.1 System Administrator
Jean-François Morin PPC 464 0.7 Director of Communications and Fundraising
Thibaud Mony Other 206 0.3 Permaculturist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 99.2%
  • Anglophone 0.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46