Riding profile

Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj: a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois?

Editorial read

Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 45% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 93% francophone, 7% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alexis Deschênes

Sits with Bloc

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Bloc

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 45.1%
  • Liberal 35.9%
  • Conservative 16.6%
  • NDP 6.1%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
HereGaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj 45.1%35.9%16.6%6.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3% +17.8 40.7% −4.9 26.9% −10.3 7.0% −0.9
National averageCanada 6.1% +39.0 41.9% −6.0 34.8% −18.2 14.2% −8.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Bloc
Margin
7.4 pts
Turnout
60.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexis Deschênes Elected Bloc 26,091 45.8 Lawyer
Diane Lebouthillier Liberal 21,817 38.3 Parliamentarian
Jean-Pierre Pigeon Conservative 7,047 12.4 Retired
Denise Giroux NDP 1,005 1.8 Retired Lawyer
Shawn Grenier Other 572 1.0 Digital Content Creator
Christian Rioux PPC 452 0.8 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 93.2%
  • Anglophone 6.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46