Riding profile
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj
The question
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Bloc
Toss-up
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.9
- P(close race)
- 53%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj | 45.1% | 40.3% | 14.7% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3% +17.8 | 45.4% −5.1 | 24.8% −10.1 | 5.1% −0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 5.7% +39.4 | 48.0% −7.7 | 32.1% −17.4 | 10.6% −6.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Bloc Québécois in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Bloc Québécois ahead at 45% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 93% francophone, 7% anglophone.
Sitting member
Alexis Deschênes
Sits with Bloc
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Deschênes Elected | Bloc | 26,091 | 45.8 | Lawyer |
| Diane Lebouthillier | Liberal | 21,817 | 38.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Jean-Pierre Pigeon | Conservative | 7,047 | 12.4 | Retired |
| Denise Giroux | NDP | 1,005 | 1.8 | Retired Lawyer |
| Shawn Grenier | Other | 572 | 1.0 | Digital Content Creator |
| Christian Rioux | PPC | 452 | 0.8 | Teacher |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 93.2%
- Anglophone 6.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46