Riding profile
Beauséjour
The question
Beauséjour: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeauséjour | 62.2% | 25.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.9% +6.3 | 33.0% −8.0 | 2.4% +0.5 | 2.8% −0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +14.2 | 32.1% −7.1 | 2.7% +0.2 | 10.6% −8.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Beauséjour, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 56% francophone, 42% anglophone.
Sitting member
Dominic LeBlanc
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic LeBlanc Elected | Liberal | 36,139 | 60.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Nathalie Vautour | Conservative | 19,862 | 33.3 | Business Owner |
| Alex Gagne | NDP | 1,448 | 2.4 | Technical Support |
| Josh Shaddick | Green | 1,291 | 2.2 | Regional Manager |
| Eddie Cornell | PPC | 503 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Donna Allen | Other | 388 | 0.7 | Labourer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 55.9%
- Anglophone 42.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46