Riding profile

Beauséjour

Federal riding — NB · Rural · atlantic

The question

Beauséjour: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Beauséjour, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 56% francophone, 42% anglophone.

Sitting member

Dominic LeBlanc

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 58.7%
  • Conservative 27.4%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • Green 2.6%
  • PPC 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereBeauséjour 58.7%27.4%3.8%2.6%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 51.3% +7.3 35.2% −7.8 4.8% −1.0 2.1% +0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +16.8 34.8% −7.4 14.2% −10.4 2.1% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
27.1 pts
Turnout
77.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dominic LeBlanc Elected Liberal 36,139 60.6 Parliamentarian
Nathalie Vautour Conservative 19,862 33.3 Business Owner
Alex Gagne NDP 1,448 2.4 Technical Support
Josh Shaddick Green 1,291 2.2 Regional Manager
Eddie Cornell PPC 503 0.8 Retired
Donna Allen Other 388 0.7 Labourer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 55.9%
  • Anglophone 42.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46