Riding profile

Charlottetown

Federal riding — PE · Urban · atlantic

The question

Charlottetown: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Charlottetown, an urban riding in Prince Edward Island, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 87% anglophone.

Sitting member

Sean Casey

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.2%
  • Conservative 22.8%
  • NDP 6.4%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCharlottetown 63.2%22.8%6.4%1.6%
Provincial averagePrince Edward Island 55.9% +7.3 30.5% −7.7 4.4% +2.0 2.6% −0.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +21.3 34.8% −12.0 14.2% −7.8 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
35.3 pts
Turnout
76.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sean Casey Elected Liberal 13,656 64.8 Parliamentarian
Natalie Jameson Conservative 6,139 29.1 Legislator
Joe Byrne NDP 906 4.3 Community Organizer
Daniel Cousins Green 257 1.2 Student
Robert Lucas PPC 131 0.6 Consultant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.7%
  • Anglophone 87.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46