Riding profile
Charlottetown
The question
Charlottetown: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 48.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCharlottetown | 69.3% | 20.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averagePrince Edward Island | 60.0% +9.3 | 28.3% −7.3 | 2.6% +1.4 | 2.9% −0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +21.3 | 32.1% −11.2 | 10.6% −6.7 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Charlottetown, an urban riding in Prince Edward Island, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 69% vote share, against 21% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 87% anglophone.
Sitting member
Sean Casey
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Casey Elected | Liberal | 13,656 | 64.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Natalie Jameson | Conservative | 6,139 | 29.1 | Legislator |
| Joe Byrne | NDP | 906 | 4.3 | Community Organizer |
| Daniel Cousins | Green | 257 | 1.2 | Student |
| Robert Lucas | PPC | 131 | 0.6 | Consultant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.7%
- Anglophone 87.0%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46