Riding profile

Central Nova

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Central Nova: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.5%
  • Conservative 34.4%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCentral Nova 53.5%34.4%2.4%1.6%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% −6.2 27.7% +6.7 4.2% −1.8 1.7%
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.5 32.1% +2.3 10.6% −8.2 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Central Nova, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 34% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Sean Fraser

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
9.1 pts
Turnout
74.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sean Fraser Elected Liberal 26,078 51.9 Parliamentarian
Brycen Jenkins Conservative 21,465 42.7 Welding Inspector
Jesiah MacDonald NDP 1,649 3.3 Labourer
Gerald Romsa Green 455 0.9 Retired
Charlie MacEachern PPC 331 0.7 Sales Manager
Alexander MacKenzie Independent 235 0.5 Cement Finishing Contractor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 98.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46