Riding profile

Cumberland--Colchester

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Cumberland--Colchester: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.9%
  • Conservative 37.5%
  • NDP 2.5%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCumberland--Colchester 49.9%37.5%2.5%2.1%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% −9.8 27.7% +9.8 4.2% −1.7 1.7% +0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +1.9 32.1% +5.4 10.6% −8.1 2.7% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Cumberland--Colchester, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alana Hirtle

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
2.5 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alana Hirtle Elected Liberal 23,929 48.3 Business Analyst
Stephen Ellis Conservative 22,701 45.8 Parliamentarian
Larry Duchesne NDP 1,873 3.8 Political Candidate
Kelly-Ann Callaghan Green 694 1.4 Marketing Specialist
Paul Church PPC 333 0.7 Business Person

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 98.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46