Riding profile

Cumberland--Colchester

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Cumberland--Colchester: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Cumberland--Colchester, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alana Hirtle

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
28%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.4%
  • Conservative 39.9%
  • NDP 4.2%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCumberland--Colchester 46.4%39.9%4.2%1.8%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 55.2% −8.8 29.9% +10.0 6.2% −2.0 1.3% +0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +4.5 34.8% +5.1 14.2% −10.0 2.1% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
2.5 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alana Hirtle Elected Liberal 23,929 48.3 Business Analyst
Stephen Ellis Conservative 22,701 45.8 Parliamentarian
Larry Duchesne NDP 1,873 3.8 Political Candidate
Kelly-Ann Callaghan Green 694 1.4 Marketing Specialist
Paul Church PPC 333 0.7 Business Person

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 98.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46