Riding profile

Kings--Hants

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Kings--Hants: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 62.1%
  • Conservative 25.1%
  • NDP 2.5%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereKings--Hants 62.1%25.1%2.5%2.1%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% +2.4 27.7% −2.6 4.2% −1.7 1.7% +0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +14.1 32.1% −7.0 10.6% −8.1 2.7% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kings--Hants, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kody Blois

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
27.0 pts
Turnout
72.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kody Blois Elected Liberal 35,836 60.6 Parliamentarian
Joel Hirtle Conservative 19,773 33.4 Tire Builder
Paul Doerr NDP 2,154 3.6 University Professor
Karen Beazley Green 825 1.4 Retired
Alexander Cargill PPC 591 1.0 Audiovisual Technician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 98.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46