Riding profile

South Shore--St. Margarets

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

South Shore--St. Margarets: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

South Shore--St. Margarets, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jessica Fancy

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.9%
  • Conservative 35.1%
  • Green 2.0%
  • PPC 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green PPC
HereSouth Shore--St. Margarets 52.9%35.1%2.0%1.4%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 55.2% −2.3 29.9% +5.2 1.3% +0.7 0.9% +0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +11.0 34.8% +0.4 2.1% −0.1 1.0% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.6 pts
Turnout
72.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jessica Fancy-Landry Elected Liberal 27,831 54.9 Teacher
Rick Perkins Conservative 20,864 41.1 Parliamentarian
Mark Embrett Green 818 1.6 Health Scientist
Patrick Shea Boyd PPC 698 1.4 Consultant
Hayden Henderson Independent 500 1.0 Researcher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 98.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46