Riding profile

Acadie--Annapolis

Federal riding — NS · Rural · atlantic

The question

Acadie--Annapolis: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.5%
  • Conservative 39.6%
  • NDP 2.5%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereAcadie--Annapolis 48.5%39.6%2.5%1.9%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% −11.2 27.7% +11.9 4.2% −1.7 1.7% +0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +0.5 32.1% +7.5 10.6% −8.1 2.7% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Acadie--Annapolis, a rural riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 9% francophone, 91% anglophone.

Sitting member

Chris d'Entremont

Sits with Liberal

Elected as Conservative · floor_crossingon2025-11-25

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.1 pts
Turnout
72.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris d'Entremont Elected Conservative 23,024 47.7 Parliamentarian
Ronnie LeBlanc Liberal 22,491 46.6 Provincial & Municipal Politician
Ingrid Deon NDP 1,768 3.7 Chief Executive Officer
Matthew Piggott Green 583 1.2 Self-Employed
James Strange PPC 432 0.9 Director of Finance

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 8.6%
  • Anglophone 90.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46