Riding profile

Halifax West

Federal riding — NS · Urban · atlantic

The question

Halifax West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 70.3%
  • Conservative 19.1%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereHalifax West 70.3%19.1%4.3%1.6%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% +10.6 27.7% −8.6 4.2% 1.7%
National averageCanada 48.0% +22.3 32.1% −13.0 10.6% −6.3 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Halifax West, an urban riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 70% vote share, against 19% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 88% anglophone.

Sitting member

Lena Metlege Diab

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
38.1 pts
Turnout
73.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lena Metlege Diab Elected Liberal 36,200 65.6 Parliamentarian
Rob Batherson Conservative 15,020 27.2 Small Business Owner
Rae Tench NDP 3,083 5.6 Certified Financial Planner
Ron G. Parker Green 497 0.9 IT Consultant
Adam LeRue PPC 384 0.7 Chef

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 88.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46