Riding profile

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour

Federal riding — NS · Urban · atlantic

The question

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
57.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 72.6%
  • Conservative 14.8%
  • NDP 4.6%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereDartmouth--Cole Harbour 72.6%14.8%4.6%1.8%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 59.7% +12.9 27.7% −12.9 4.2% +0.4 1.7% +0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +24.6 32.1% −17.4 10.6% −6.0 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour, an urban riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 73% vote share, against 15% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Darren Fisher

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
44.7 pts
Turnout
71.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Darren Fisher Elected Liberal 40,367 67.7 Parliamentarian
Isabelle Obeid Conservative 13,557 22.7 School Supervisor
Keith Morrison NDP 4,201 7.0 Teacher
Michelle Lindsay PPC 750 1.3 Health Advisor
Rana Zaman Green 628 1.1 Homemaker
Joseph Shea Other 131 0.2 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.2%
  • Anglophone 95.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46