Riding profile

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour

Federal riding — NS · Urban · atlantic

The question

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Dartmouth--Cole Harbour, an urban riding in Nova Scotia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 17% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Darren Fisher

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 66.4%
  • Conservative 16.6%
  • NDP 7.1%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereDartmouth--Cole Harbour 66.4%16.6%7.1%1.5%
Provincial averageNova Scotia 55.2% +11.2 29.9% −13.3 6.2% +0.9 1.3% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +24.5 34.8% −18.2 14.2% −7.1 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
44.7 pts
Turnout
71.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Darren Fisher Elected Liberal 40,367 67.7 Parliamentarian
Isabelle Obeid Conservative 13,557 22.7 School Supervisor
Keith Morrison NDP 4,201 7.0 Teacher
Michelle Lindsay PPC 750 1.3 Health Advisor
Rana Zaman Green 628 1.1 Homemaker
Joseph Shea Other 131 0.2 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.2%
  • Anglophone 95.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46