Riding profile

Malpeque

Federal riding — PE · Rural · atlantic

The question

Malpeque: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 59.1%
  • Conservative 28.2%
  • Green 4.6%
  • NDP 2.1%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green NDP
HereMalpeque 59.1%28.2%4.6%2.1%
Provincial averagePrince Edward Island 60.0% −1.0 28.3% 2.9% +1.7 2.6% −0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% +11.1 32.1% −3.9 2.7% +1.9 10.6% −8.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Malpeque, a rural riding in Prince Edward Island, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Heath MacDonald

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
20.8 pts
Turnout
81.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Heath MacDonald Elected Liberal 15,485 57.6 Parliamentarian
Jamie Fox Conservative 9,846 36.6 Politician
Anna Keenan Green 1,049 3.9 Municipal Public Servant
Cassie Mackay NDP 371 1.4 Unemployed
Hilda Baughan PPC 132 0.5 Semi-Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.7%
  • Anglophone 96.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46