Riding profile

Moncton--Dieppe

Federal riding — NB · Urban · atlantic

The question

Moncton--Dieppe: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Moncton--Dieppe, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 26% francophone, 68% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ginette Petitpas Taylor

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.6%
  • Conservative 25.0%
  • NDP 6.3%
  • Green 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereMoncton--Dieppe 61.6%25.0%6.3%2.5%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 51.3% +10.3 35.2% −10.2 4.8% +1.5 2.1% +0.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +19.7 34.8% −9.8 14.2% −7.9 2.1% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
31.6 pts
Turnout
70.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ginette Petitpas Taylor Elected Liberal 30,215 63.0 Parliamentarian
Jocelyn Dionne Conservative 14,974 31.2 Consultant (Self-Employed)
Serge Landry NDP 1,775 3.7 Regional Representative for NB & PEI
Marshall Dunn Green 994 2.1 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 25.8%
  • Anglophone 67.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46