Riding profile

Miramichi--Grand Lake

Federal riding — NB · Rural · atlantic

The question

Miramichi--Grand Lake: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Miramichi--Grand Lake, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 16% francophone, 83% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mike Dawson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.2%
  • Conservative 42.1%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • Green 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereMiramichi--Grand Lake 45.2%42.1%3.9%2.6%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 51.3% −6.1 35.2% +6.9 4.8% −0.9 2.1% +0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +3.3 34.8% +7.3 14.2% −10.3 2.1% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.0 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mike Dawson Elected Conservative 18,421 48.2 Businessman
Lisa Harris Liberal 18,037 47.1 Local Community Engagement Strategist
Josh Floyd NDP 968 2.5 Administrative Assistant
Matthew Ian Clark Green 831 2.2 Administrative Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 15.5%
  • Anglophone 83.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46