Riding profile
Miramichi--Grand Lake
The question
Miramichi--Grand Lake: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.0
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMiramichi--Grand Lake | 48.7% | 39.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.9% −7.2 | 33.0% +6.6 | 2.4% +0.5 | 2.8% −0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +0.7 | 32.1% +7.6 | 2.7% +0.2 | 10.6% −8.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Miramichi--Grand Lake, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 16% francophone, 83% anglophone.
Sitting member
Mike Dawson
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Dawson Elected | Conservative | 18,421 | 48.2 | Businessman |
| Lisa Harris | Liberal | 18,037 | 47.1 | Local Community Engagement Strategist |
| Josh Floyd | NDP | 968 | 2.5 | Administrative Assistant |
| Matthew Ian Clark | Green | 831 | 2.2 | Administrative Assistant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 15.5%
- Anglophone 83.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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