Riding profile

Acadie--Bathurst

Federal riding — NB · Rural · atlantic

The question

Acadie--Bathurst: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 68.6%
  • Conservative 17.6%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • PPC 2.1%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereAcadie--Bathurst 68.6%17.6%2.7%2.1%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 55.9% +12.7 33.0% −15.4 2.8% −0.2 0.9% +1.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +20.6 32.1% −14.5 10.6% −7.9 1.0% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Acadie--Bathurst, a rural riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 69% vote share, against 18% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 81% francophone, 19% anglophone.

Sitting member

Serge Cormier

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
41.0 pts
Turnout
70.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Serge Cormier Elected Liberal 32,556 67.5 Parliamentarian
James Brown Conservative 12,541 26.0 Professor
Ty Boulay NDP 2,108 4.4 Social Media Management
Randi Rachelle Raynard PPC 1,043 2.2 Sales Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 80.8%
  • Anglophone 18.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46