Riding profile

Fredericton--Oromocto

Federal riding — NB · Urban · atlantic

The question

Fredericton--Oromocto: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Fredericton--Oromocto, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 26% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 4% francophone, 91% anglophone.

Sitting member

David Myles

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 60.1%
  • Conservative 26.2%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • Green 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereFredericton--Oromocto 60.1%26.2%5.8%3.5%
Provincial averageNew Brunswick 51.3% +8.7 35.2% −9.1 4.8% +1.0 2.1% +1.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +18.2 34.8% −8.6 14.2% −8.3 2.1% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
28.9 pts
Turnout
75.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Myles Elected Liberal 30,750 61.3 Musician
Brian Macdonald Conservative 16,200 32.3 Consultant
Pam Allen-Leblanc Green 1,568 3.1 Self-Employed
Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane NDP 908 1.8 Library Assistant
Dominic Cardy Other 345 0.7 Politician
Heather Michaud PPC 208 0.4 Registered Massage Therapist
June Patterson Other 146 0.3 Grocery Clerk
Brandon Ellis Other 44 0.1 Business Development

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 4.2%
  • Anglophone 90.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46