Riding profile
Fredericton--Oromocto
The question
Fredericton--Oromocto: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 42.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFredericton--Oromocto | 66.2% | 24.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| Provincial averageNew Brunswick | 55.9% +10.3 | 33.0% −8.8 | 2.4% +1.4 | 2.8% +0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +18.2 | 32.1% −7.8 | 2.7% +1.1 | 10.6% −7.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Fredericton--Oromocto, an urban riding in New Brunswick, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 4% francophone, 91% anglophone.
Sitting member
David Myles
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Myles Elected | Liberal | 30,750 | 61.3 | Musician |
| Brian Macdonald | Conservative | 16,200 | 32.3 | Consultant |
| Pam Allen-Leblanc | Green | 1,568 | 3.1 | Self-Employed |
| Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane | NDP | 908 | 1.8 | Library Assistant |
| Dominic Cardy | Other | 345 | 0.7 | Politician |
| Heather Michaud | PPC | 208 | 0.4 | Registered Massage Therapist |
| June Patterson | Other | 146 | 0.3 | Grocery Clerk |
| Brandon Ellis | Other | 44 | 0.1 | Business Development |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 4.2%
- Anglophone 90.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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