Riding profile
Cardigan
The question
Cardigan: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCardigan | 58.4% | 28.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averagePrince Edward Island | 60.0% −1.6 | 28.3% +0.7 | 2.6% −0.5 | 2.9% −0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +10.4 | 32.1% −3.2 | 10.6% −8.5 | 2.7% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Cardigan, a rural riding in Prince Edward Island, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.
Sitting member
Kent MacDonald
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent MacDonald Elected | Liberal | 14,404 | 57.0 | Dairy Farmer |
| James Aylward | Conservative | 9,442 | 37.4 | Retired |
| Lynne Thiele | NDP | 505 | 2.0 | Retired Teacher |
| Wayne Phelan | Independent | 404 | 1.6 | Self-Employed Installer |
| Maria Rodriguez | Green | 326 | 1.3 | Retired Civil Servant |
| Adam Harding | PPC | 180 | 0.7 | Public Works Employee, Town of Three Rivers |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.5%
- Anglophone 93.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 6.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46