Riding profile

Cardigan

Federal riding — PE · Rural · atlantic

The question

Cardigan: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Cardigan, a rural riding in Prince Edward Island, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kent MacDonald

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.9%
  • Conservative 31.4%
  • NDP 3.7%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCardigan 54.9%31.4%3.7%1.7%
Provincial averagePrince Edward Island 55.9% −0.9 30.5% +0.8 4.4% −0.7 2.6% −0.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +13.0 34.8% −3.4 14.2% −10.5 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.5 pts
Turnout
79.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kent MacDonald Elected Liberal 14,404 57.0 Dairy Farmer
James Aylward Conservative 9,442 37.4 Retired
Lynne Thiele NDP 505 2.0 Retired Teacher
Wayne Phelan Independent 404 1.6 Self-Employed Installer
Maria Rodriguez Green 326 1.3 Retired Civil Servant
Adam Harding PPC 180 0.7 Public Works Employee, Town of Three Rivers

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 93.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46