Riding profile

Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 40.3%
  • Liberal 38.6%
  • NDP 4.4%
  • PPC 2.1%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereKapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk 40.3%38.6%4.4%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +5.0 49.1% −10.5 4.8% −0.4 1.1% +1.0
National averageCanada 32.1% +8.1 48.0% −9.4 10.6% −6.2 1.0% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 24% francophone, 73% anglophone.

Sitting member

Gaétan Malette

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.9 pts
Turnout
62.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gaétan Malette Elected Conservative 23,062 48.9 Volunteer
Steve Black Liberal 18,366 39.0 Mining Engineer
Nicole Fortier Levesque NDP 4,895 10.4 Educator
Serge Lefebvre PPC 814 1.7 Mechanical Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 24.4%
  • Anglophone 72.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46