Riding profile

Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.1%
  • Conservative 37.1%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSault Ste. Marie--Algoma 47.1%37.1%4.0%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −2.0 35.3% +1.8 4.8% −0.8 2.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.9 32.1% +5.0 10.6% −6.6 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 2% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Terry Sheehan

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
2.6 pts
Turnout
67.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Terry Sheehan Elected Liberal 30,936 47.4 Parliamentarian
Hugh Stevenson Conservative 29,208 44.7 Chief of Police
Laura Mayer NDP 4,327 6.6 Executive Director
Robyn Kiki Eshkibok Green 541 0.8 Student
James Collins Other 305 0.5 Sole Proprietor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.8%
  • Anglophone 95.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46