Riding profile

Thunder Bay--Superior North

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Thunder Bay--Superior North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.9%
  • Conservative 28.1%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereThunder Bay--Superior North 54.9%28.1%4.1%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +5.8 35.3% −7.1 4.8% −0.7 2.0% −0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.9 32.1% −4.0 10.6% −6.5 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Thunder Bay--Superior North, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Patty Hajdu

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.4 pts
Turnout
67.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patty Hajdu Elected Liberal 25,134 55.2 Parliamentarian
Bob Herman Conservative 16,267 35.7 Retired Police Officer
Joy Wakefield NDP 3,235 7.1 Lawyer
Amos Bradley PPC 459 1.0 Delivery Driver
John Malcolm Northey Green 417 0.9 Director of Technology Implementation

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.3%
  • Anglophone 94.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46