Riding profile

Kenora--Kiiwetinoong

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Kenora--Kiiwetinoong: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 40.2%
  • Liberal 34.9%
  • NDP 8.3%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereKenora--Kiiwetinoong 40.2%34.9%8.3%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +4.9 49.1% −14.2 4.8% +3.5 2.0% −0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +8.1 48.0% −13.1 10.6% −2.3 2.7% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kenora--Kiiwetinoong, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Eric Melillo

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.5 pts
Turnout
59.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eric Melillo Elected Conservative 13,109 48.7 Parliamentarian
Charles Fox Liberal 9,454 35.2 Executive Director
Tania Cameron NDP 3,698 13.8 Administrator
Jon Hobbs Green 286 1.1 Retired Architect
Bryce Desjarlais PPC 204 0.8 Locomotive Engineer
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago Independent 141 0.5 Carpenter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 94.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46