Riding profile

Provencher

Federal riding — MB · Mixed · mb rural

The question

Provencher: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Provencher, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 28% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 4% francophone, 86% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ted Falk

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 54.5%
  • Liberal 28.5%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • PPC 2.2%
  • Green 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereProvencher 54.5%28.5%3.0%2.2%
Provincial averageManitoba 33.4% +21.1 43.9% −15.4 10.5% −7.5 1.4% +0.8
National averageCanada 34.8% +19.7 41.9% −13.4 14.2% −11.2 1.0% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
40.2 pts
Turnout
70.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ted Falk Elected Conservative 34,364 66.3 Business Owner
Trevor Kirczenow Liberal 13,394 25.9 Musician
Brandy Schmidt NDP 2,398 4.6 Executive Assistant
Noël Gautron PPC 942 1.8 Commercial Driver
Blair Mahaffy Green 705 1.4 Software Developer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 4.3%
  • Anglophone 85.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46