Riding profile

Provencher

Federal riding — MB · Mixed · mb rural

The question

Provencher: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 52.7%
  • Liberal 33.7%
  • Green 2.4%
  • PPC 2.3%
  • NDP 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green PPC
HereProvencher 52.7%33.7%2.4%2.3%
Provincial averageManitoba 31.7% +21.1 49.9% −16.2 1.7% +0.7 1.5% +0.8
National averageCanada 32.1% +20.6 48.0% −14.3 2.7% −0.3 1.0% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Provencher, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 34% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 4% francophone, 86% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ted Falk

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
40.2 pts
Turnout
70.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-21.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ted Falk Elected Conservative 34,364 66.3 Business Owner
Trevor Kirczenow Liberal 13,394 25.9 Musician
Brandy Schmidt NDP 2,398 4.6 Executive Assistant
Noël Gautron PPC 942 1.8 Commercial Driver
Blair Mahaffy Green 705 1.4 Software Developer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 4.3%
  • Anglophone 85.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46