Riding profile

Thunder Bay--Rainy River

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Thunder Bay--Rainy River: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.2%
  • Conservative 35.3%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereThunder Bay--Rainy River 48.2%35.3%4.0%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −0.9 35.3% 4.8% −0.8 2.0% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +0.2 32.1% +3.2 10.6% −6.6 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Thunder Bay--Rainy River, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marcus Powlowski

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
5.6 pts
Turnout
66.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marcus Powlowski Elected Liberal 21,125 48.5 Parliamentarian
Brendan Hyatt Conservative 18,685 42.9 Retired Director of Education
Yuk-Sem Won NDP 2,954 6.8 Litigator
Sabrina Ree PPC 433 1.0 Multidisciplinary Healthcare Professional
Eric Arner Green 334 0.8 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 97.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46