Riding profile

Thunder Bay--Rainy River

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Thunder Bay--Rainy River: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Thunder Bay--Rainy River, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marcus Powlowski

Sits with Liberal

Since: 2025-04-28
Parliament: 45^th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 7.2
P(close race): 13%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Liberal 44.6%
Conservative 37.5%
NDP 5.7%
PPC 1.3%
Green 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
HereThunder Bay--Rainy River	44.6%	37.5%	5.7%	1.3%
Provincial averageOntario	45.6% −1.0	37.5%	6.4% −0.7	1.1% +0.3
National averageCanada	41.9% +2.7	34.8% +2.7	14.2% −8.5	1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by

Liberal

Margin

5.6 pts

Turnout

66.4%

Margin shift vs current projection

+1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Marcus Powlowski Elected	Liberal	21,125	48.5	Parliamentarian
Brendan Hyatt	Conservative	18,685	42.9	Retired Director of Education
Yuk-Sem Won	NDP	2,954	6.8	Litigator
Sabrina Ree	PPC	433	1.0	Multidisciplinary Healthcare Professional
Eric Arner	Green	334	0.8	Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

Francophone 0.4%
Anglophone 97.3%
Non-francophone (other) 2.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: fed_46