Riding profile

Churchill--Keewatinook Aski

Federal riding — MB · Rural · mb rural

The question

Churchill--Keewatinook Aski: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Churchill--Keewatinook Aski, a rural riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 25% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rebecca Chartrand

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.5%
  • NDP 25.4%
  • Conservative 11.1%
  • PPC 2.1%
  • Green 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative PPC
HereChurchill--Keewatinook Aski 46.5%25.4%11.1%2.1%
Provincial averageManitoba 43.9% +2.6 10.5% +14.9 33.4% −22.3 1.4% +0.7
National averageCanada 41.9% +4.6 14.2% +11.2 34.8% −23.7 1.0% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
16.6 pts
Turnout
41.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rebecca Chartrand Elected Liberal 9,313 45.5 President
Niki Ashton NDP 5,880 28.7 College Instructor
Lachlan De Nardi Conservative 4,927 24.1 Student
Dylan Young PPC 349 1.7 Accountant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 90.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46