Riding profile
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski
The question
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChurchill--Keewatinook Aski | 49.4% | 23.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.9% −0.5 | 8.5% +15.4 | 31.7% −22.6 | 1.5% +0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +1.4 | 10.6% +13.3 | 32.1% −23.0 | 1.0% +1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski, a rural riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 24% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rebecca Chartrand
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Chartrand Elected | Liberal | 9,313 | 45.5 | President |
| Niki Ashton | NDP | 5,880 | 28.7 | College Instructor |
| Lachlan De Nardi | Conservative | 4,927 | 24.1 | Student |
| Dylan Young | PPC | 349 | 1.7 | Accountant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 90.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 9.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46