Riding profile

Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 41.3%
  • Conservative 40.7%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt 41.3%40.7%4.3%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −7.8 35.3% +5.4 4.8% −0.5 2.0% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% −6.7 32.1% +8.6 10.6% −6.3 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 41% vote share, against 41% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 19% francophone, 80% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jim Bélanger

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.7 pts
Turnout
70.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jim Belanger Elected Conservative 29,156 48.3 Self-Employed
Marc G. Serré Liberal 25,075 41.6 Parliamentarian
Andréane Chénier NDP 4,822 8.0 Occupational Health and Safety Specialist
Sharilynne St. Louis PPC 489 0.8 Realtor
Himal Hossain Green 465 0.8 Human Resources Generalist
Justin Dean Newell Leroux Other 316 0.5 Systems Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 19.0%
  • Anglophone 79.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46