Riding profile

Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 19% francophone, 80% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jim Bélanger

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 42.9%
  • Liberal 37.7%
  • NDP 6.0%
  • Green 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereSudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt 42.9%37.7%6.0%1.3%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +5.4 45.6% −7.9 6.4% −0.4 1.6% −0.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +8.1 41.9% −4.2 14.2% −8.2 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.7 pts
Turnout
70.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jim Belanger Elected Conservative 29,156 48.3 Self-Employed
Marc G. Serré Liberal 25,075 41.6 Parliamentarian
Andréane Chénier NDP 4,822 8.0 Occupational Health and Safety Specialist
Sharilynne St. Louis PPC 489 0.8 Realtor
Himal Hossain Green 465 0.8 Human Resources Generalist
Justin Dean Newell Leroux Other 316 0.5 Systems Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 19.0%
  • Anglophone 79.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46